FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Estoril 1–2 Casa PiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estoril at 51%, draw at 26%, Casa Pia at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Estoril to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
51%
Draw
26%
Pia win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.06
Total 2.74
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Estoril's 0.67 expected-goals edge over Casa Pia underpins a 78% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, making a multi-goal affair the model's clearest conviction in this fixture."