FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Moreirense 0–4 BenficaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Moreirense at 11%, draw at 20%, Benfica at 69%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Benfica.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Moreirense win
11%
Draw
20%
Benfica win
69%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.78 – 2.18
Total 2.96
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Benfica's away win stands at 69% probability, anchored by a 1.40 xG advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat led by striker Pavlidis."