FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 17 August 2026
Casa Pia 0–7 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 17 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica or draw at 73%. Bawler had Casa Pia at 27%, the draw at 34% and Benfica at 39%. The match finished 0–7.
Pre-match probability vs result
Casa Pia win
27%
Draw
34%
Benfica win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 7
Total 7 (+4.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 4.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.