FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 31 August 2026
Benfica 2–1 EstorilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Benfica at 76%, draw at 16%, Estoril at 9%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Benfica.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
76%
Actual ✓
Draw
16%
Estoril win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.63 – 0.80
Total 3.43
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won