FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
C.D. Nacional 2–0 EstorilMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was C.D. Nacional or draw at 67%. Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 38%, the draw at 30% and Estoril at 33%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
C.D. Nacional win
38%
Result
Draw
30%
Estoril win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
C.D. Nacional or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Nacional's superior shot creation—a 0.48 xG advantage—backs the C.D. Nacional or draw forecast at 69%, suggesting the hosts either win or draw in a low-scoring Primeira Liga contest."