FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
C.D. Nacional 2–0 EstorilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 38%, draw at 30%, Estoril at 33%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward C.D. Nacional.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nacional win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Estoril win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.07
Total 2.62
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Nacional's superior shot creation—a 0.48 xG advantage—backs the 1X forecast at 69%, suggesting the hosts either win or draw in a low-scoring Primeira Liga contest."