FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Maritimo 0–3 BenficaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Maritimo at 14%, draw at 20%, Benfica at 66%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Benfica.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Maritimo win
14%
Draw
20%
Benfica win
66%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.91 – 2.19
Total 3.10
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 66%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 38%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Benfica Away Win commands a 66% forecast on a dominant 1.28 xG advantage, with striker Vangelis Pavlidis accounting for nearly three-tenths of his side's shot quality."