FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Friday, 07 August 2026
Estoril 1–1 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 07 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estoril at 36%, draw at 32%, FC Famalicao at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Estoril to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
36%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Famalicao win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.27
Total 2.64
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 29%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Under 2.5 Goals is the play here—combined expected goals of just 1.50 project a low-scoring affair despite Famalicao's modest 35% win probability."