FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Benfica 3–1 Gil VicenteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Benfica at 63%, draw at 22%, Gil Vicente at 15%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Benfica.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
63%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Vicente win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.00 – 0.86
Total 2.86
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 63%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Benfica's home win prediction rests on a decisive 1.14 expected-goals advantage, with striker Pavlidis accounting for nearly 30% of their attacking threat against a Gil Vicente side generating just 0.86 xG."