FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Estoril 0–2 Rio AveMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estoril at 47%, draw at 26%, Rio Ave at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Estoril to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
47%
Draw
26%
Ave win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.15
Total 2.75
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost