FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 07 September 2026
Estoril 0–0 AroucaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 07 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Estoril at 43%, draw at 26%, Arouca at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Estoril to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Estoril win
43%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Arouca win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.36
Total 2.97
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides combine for 2.97 expected goals, giving Estoril's home advantage just enough edge in a fixture where neither team dominates the xG battle."