What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 82%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Benfica are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Celtic. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Benfica to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Benfica vs Celtic?
Bawler's model rates this match: Benfica are favoured (68% win probability vs 13% for Celtic, 19% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Celtic?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Benfica 2-0 Celtic (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.30.
How does Bawler predict Benfica vs Celtic?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Benfica 68%, the draw 19% and Celtic 13%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Celtic?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.36 and away expected goals 0.95.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Benfica vs Celtic?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.30. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).