FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Benfica 2–0 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 69%. Bawler had Benfica at 69%, the draw at 19% and Vitória de Guimaraes at 12%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
69%
Result
Draw
19%
Vitória de Guimaraes win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.8
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.