FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Celtic 0–1 RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Celtic at 51%, draw at 23%, Rangers at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Celtic to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
51%
Draw
23%
Rangers win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 1.36
Total 3.31
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% confidence because Celtic's 2.03 expected goals substantially outpaces Rangers' 1.26, creating a 0.77 xG gap that historically translates to multiple-goal matches."