FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Benfica 4–1 CelticMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 67%. Bawler had Benfica at 67%, the draw at 19% and Celtic at 13%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
67%
Result
Draw
19%
Celtic win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.9
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.