FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Celtic 1–2 Celta VigoMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 63%. Bawler had Celtic at 37%, the draw at 26% and Celta Vigo at 37%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
37%
Draw
26%
Celta Vigo win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% confidence because Celtic and Celta Vigo's combined expected goals (2.89) and evenly matched win probabilities (36% vs 37%) suggest a competitive, open encounter likely to produce multiple efforts."