FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Omonia Nicosia 1–4 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica or draw at 80%. Bawler had Omonia Nicosia at 20%, the draw at 24% and Benfica at 55%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Omonia Nicosia win
20%
Draw
24%
Benfica win
55%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.8
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 3.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Benfica's 0.81 expected-goals advantage and 56% win probability make Benfica or draw the model's high-confidence call, with Pavlidis's striker role central to their 1.84 xG output."