FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
AC Milan 0–2 BenficaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AC Milan at 39%, draw at 26%, Benfica at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was AC Milan to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Milan win
39%
Draw
26%
Benfica win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.43
Total 2.94
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Milan's 1.51 xG and Benfica's 1.43 xG combine for a high-volume attacking blueprint, with Leão and Pavlidis each commanding their team's shot creation."