FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Celtic 1–3 FerencvarosMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 17 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Celtic at 42%, draw at 26%, Ferencvaros at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Celtic to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
42%
Draw
26%
Ferencvaros win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.30
Total 2.84
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Celtic 1.53 xG, Ferencvaros 1.30—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in this Europa League tie."