FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Celtic 7–1 Heart of MidlothianMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 78%. Bawler had Celtic at 54%, the draw at 24% and Heart of Midlothian at 22%. The match finished 7–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Heart of Midlothian win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
7 – 1
Total 8 (+4.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 4.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Celtic to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.