FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Motherwell 0–2 CelticMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 74%. Bawler had Motherwell at 26%, the draw at 25% and Celtic at 50%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Motherwell win
26%
Draw
25%
Celtic win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.8
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Celtic or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.