FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 26 October 2026
Santa Clara 1–2 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 26 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica or draw at 81%. Bawler had Santa Clara at 19%, the draw at 26% and Benfica at 56%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Santa Clara win
19%
Draw
26%
Benfica win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.7
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Benfica's 0.78 expected-goals advantage and 55% win probability make the draw-or-away-win forecast (Benfica or draw) the model's high-confidence call at 81%."