FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
FC Porto 3–1 BenficaMatch recap · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
39%
Result
Draw
27%
Benfica win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.