What we expect
In plain English
Aston Villa are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Fenerbahce. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Aston Villa to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler's model rates this match: Aston Villa are favoured (62% win probability vs 17% for Fenerbahce, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Aston Villa 1-1 Fenerbahce (10.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.12.
How does Bawler predict Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Aston Villa 62%, the draw 21% and Fenerbahce 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.11 and away expected goals 1.01.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.12. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).