FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Fenerbahce 3–0 AlanyasporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce to win at 69%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 69%, the draw at 20% and Alanyaspor at 11%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
69%
Result
Draw
20%
Alanyaspor win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.8
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.8 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Fenerbahce to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.