FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Coventry City 1–3 Aston VillaMatch recap · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Coventry City win
28%
Draw
25%
Aston Villa win
47%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.