FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Coventry City 1–3 Aston VillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Coventry City at 28%, draw at 25%, Aston Villa at 47%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Aston Villa.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
28%
Draw
25%
Villa win
47%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.69
Total 2.95
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (79%) because Aston Villa's 1.69 xG—led by Ollie Watkins's shot dominance—combined with Coventry's 1.25 xG creates a 0.44 gap that points to an open, attacking contest."