FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Fenerbahce 2–2 Slavia PragueMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce or draw at 73%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 49%, the draw at 24% and Slavia Prague at 27%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
49%
Draw
24%
Result
Slavia Prague win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Fenerbahce or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 83%, with Fenerbahce's 0.54 expected-goals edge over Slavia Prague suggesting the hosts will create enough attacking threat to break through a relatively modest defensive ceiling."