FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fenerbahce 8–0 EyupsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 75%, draw at 17%, Eyupspor at 8%. The match ended 8-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Fenerbahce.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
75%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
Eyupspor win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.39 – 0.67
Total 3.07
Actual
8 – 0
Total 8 (+4.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Fenerbahce's home win is the high-confidence call at 74%, underpinned by a dominant 1.68 xG advantage that reflects their superior chance creation over a visiting side managing just 0.71 expected goals."