FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Newcastle United 0–1 Aston VillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United or draw at 65%. Bawler had Newcastle United at 40%, the draw at 25% and Aston Villa at 35%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Newcastle United win
40%
Draw
25%
Aston Villa win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.