FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Aston Villa 2–2 BrentfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa or draw at 65%. Bawler had Aston Villa at 39%, the draw at 26% and Brentford at 35%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aston Villa win
39%
Draw
26%
Result
Brentford win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.