FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Aston Villa 6–0 FenerbahceMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa to win at 63%. Bawler had Aston Villa at 63%, the draw at 21% and Fenerbahce at 16%. The match finished 6–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aston Villa win
63%
Result
Draw
21%
Fenerbahce win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
6 – 0
Total 6 (+2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Aston Villa to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.