What we expect
In plain English
Arsenal are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Lille. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Arsenal to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Lille?
Bawler's model rates this match: Arsenal are favoured (74% win probability vs 8% for Lille, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Lille?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Arsenal 2-0 Lille (13.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.94.
How does Bawler predict Arsenal vs Lille?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Arsenal 74%, the draw 17% and Lille 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Lille?
BTTS: No (58% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.30 and away expected goals 0.64.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Lille?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.94. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).