Arsenal beat Lille 3–0. Arsenal had 16 shots (8 on target) to Lille's 4 (0), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.4.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Arsenal beat Lille 3–0. Arsenal had 16 shots (8 on target) to Lille's 4 (0), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.4.
Arsenal 3–0 Lille, played on 13 Oct 2026 in the Europe: Champions League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Arsenal 75%, the draw 17% and Lille 8%.
Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–0.4, Shots 16–4, Shots on target 8–0, Shots inside box 12–1, Big chances 1–0, Corners 7–0, Saves 0–5, Fouls 13–9, Offsides 4–3, Yellow cards 2–1.
No. It finished 3–0, so Lille failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 42% before kickoff.