FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Arsenal 2–1 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal to win at 63%. Bawler had Arsenal at 63%, the draw at 23% and Leeds United at 15%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
63%
Result
Draw
23%
Leeds United win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.8
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.