FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Nice 2–1 LilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nice at 29%, draw at 27%, Lille at 44%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Lille to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nice win
29%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Lille win
44%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.21 – 1.55
Total 2.77
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 77%, as Lille's 0.40 xG advantage and Jonathan David's 28% of team shot creation suggest enough attacking thrust to break through Nice's modest 1.19 expected output."