FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Lille 1–1 BrestMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lille or draw at 75%. Bawler had Lille at 50%, the draw at 25% and Brest at 25%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
50%
Draw
25%
Result
Brest win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Lille or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.