FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Lille 1–0 Le Havre ACMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lille or draw at 82%. Bawler had Lille at 57%, the draw at 24% and Le Havre AC at 18%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lille win
57%
Result
Draw
24%
Le Havre AC win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lille or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.