FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–1 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal or draw at 79%. Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 21%, the draw at 26% and Arsenal at 53%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham Forest win
21%
Draw
26%
Arsenal win
53%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.6
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.