FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Bayern Munich 2–2 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal or draw at 64%. Bawler had Bayern Munich at 37%, the draw at 25% and Arsenal at 38%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayern Munich win
37%
Draw
25%
Result
Arsenal win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% because Bayern (1.52 xG) and Arsenal (1.57 xG) generate nearly identical attacking threat, with Saka and Gyökeres combining for over a third of Arsenal's shot quality."