FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Arsenal 3–0 LilleMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal to win at 75%. Bawler had Arsenal at 75%, the draw at 17% and Lille at 8%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
75%
Result
Draw
17%
Lille win
8%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.6
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.