How it finished
Arouca beat Maritimo 2–1. Bawler's model had Arouca in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Arouca had 17 shots (7 on target) to Maritimo's 12 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 71%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca beat Maritimo 2–1. Bawler's model had Arouca in front at 45% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. Arouca had 17 shots (7 on target) to Maritimo's 12 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 0.7.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca 2–1 Maritimo, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Arouca 45%, the draw 26% and Maritimo 29%.
What were the stats in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–0.7, Shots 17–12, Shots on target 7–4, Shots inside box 10–8, Big chances 2–1, Corners 2–3, Saves 3–5, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Yes — both Arouca and Maritimo scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Arouca vs Maritimo right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Arouca 45%, it finished Arouca (45% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 54%, it finished Landed.