FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Arouca 4–0 MoreirenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arouca or draw at 75%. Bawler had Arouca at 46%, the draw at 29% and Moreirense at 25%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
46%
Result
Draw
29%
Moreirense win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arouca or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Arouca to win
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Arouca's 0.52 expected-goals advantage underpins a Arouca or draw forecast at 77%, signaling the hosts are likelier to avoid defeat than surrender at home."