FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Arouca 4–0 MoreirenseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Arouca at 46%, draw at 29%, Moreirense at 25%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Arouca.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Moreirense win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.09
Total 2.71
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Arouca's 0.52 expected-goals advantage underpins a 1X forecast at 77%, signaling the hosts are likelier to avoid defeat than surrender at home."