FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Arouca 1–2 Santa ClaraMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Arouca at 34%, draw at 29%, Santa Clara at 37%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Santa Clara.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
34%
Draw
29%
Clara win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.19 – 1.26
Total 2.46
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 70% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Arouca 1.19 xG and Santa Clara 1.26 xG—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely at the Estádio Municipal."