FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Arouca 1–2 Santa ClaraMatch recap · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
34%
Draw
29%
Santa Clara win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.