FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
FC Famalicao 1–2 MaritimoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Famalicao at 48%, draw at 32%, Maritimo at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was FC Famalicao to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Famalicao win
48%
Draw
32%
Maritimo win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 0.93
Total 2.47
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 70% confidence because Famalicao's 0.61 xG edge signals enough attacking threat to break through a Maritimo side generating just 0.93 expected goals."