FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 16 August 2026
FC Famalicao 1–2 MaritimoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Famalicao or draw at 80%. Bawler had FC Famalicao at 48%, the draw at 32% and Maritimo at 20%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Famalicao win
48%
Draw
32%
Maritimo win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 0.9
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Maritimo or draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 70% confidence because Famalicao's 0.61 xG edge signals enough attacking threat to break through a Maritimo side generating just 0.93 expected goals."