FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting CP at 75%, draw at 16%, Arouca at 8%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Sporting CP to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CP win
75%
Draw
16%
Actual ✓
Arouca win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.47 – 0.72
Total 3.19
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Sporting CP's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.72 expected-goals advantage, with striker Viktor Gyökeres accounting for nearly a third of their attacking threat against Arouca's depleted output of 0.75 xG."