FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Arouca 2–1 MaritimoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arouca or draw at 71%. Bawler had Arouca at 45%, the draw at 26% and Maritimo at 29%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
Maritimo win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (78%), backed by Arouca's 0.35 xG edge and combined expected output of 2.86 goals between the sides."