FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Arouca 2–1 MaritimoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Arouca at 45%, draw at 26%, Maritimo at 29%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Arouca.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Maritimo win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.25
Total 2.86
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (78%), backed by Arouca's 0.35 xG edge and combined expected output of 2.86 goals between the sides."