FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Moreirense 3–1 MaritimoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Moreirense at 37%, draw at 28%, Maritimo at 35%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Moreirense.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Moreirense win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Maritimo win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.29
Total 2.62
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 74% forecast because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.33 and 1.29 xG respectively, keeping this fixture wide open."