FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 23 August 2026
FC Porto 2–0 AroucaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Porto at 72%, draw at 18%, Arouca at 9%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Porto.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Porto win
72%
Actual ✓
Draw
18%
Arouca win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.27 – 0.70
Total 2.97
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost