FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 23 August 2026
FC Porto 2–0 AroucaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto to win at 72%. Bawler had FC Porto at 72%, the draw at 18% and Arouca at 9%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
72%
Result
Draw
18%
Arouca win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.7
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.0 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Porto to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.