FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Gil Vicente 1–1 MaritimoMatch recap · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Gil Vicente win
57%
Draw
24%
Result
Maritimo win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.