FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Gil Vicente 1–1 MaritimoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Gil Vicente at 57%, draw at 24%, Maritimo at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Gil Vicente to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vicente win
57%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Maritimo win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.80 – 0.94
Total 2.74
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Gil Vicente's 0.80 expected-goals advantage underpins the 1X forecast at 80%, as the hosts' superior shot quality should secure at least a draw against Maritimo's blunt attack."