FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Maritimo 2–2 Académico de ViseuMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Académico de Viseu or draw at 68%. Bawler had Maritimo at 32%, the draw at 28% and Académico de Viseu at 40%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Maritimo win
32%
Draw
28%
Result
Académico de Viseu win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.