FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Maritimo 2–2 Académico de ViseuMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Maritimo at 32%, draw at 28%, Académico de Viseu at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Académico de Viseu to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Maritimo win
32%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Viseu win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.23 – 1.41
Total 2.64
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won