Alavés vs Osasuna prediction — LaLiga · Sun 6 Sept · 17:30 UK

LaLiga · Sun 6 Sept · 17:30 UK
Alavés 46Draw 27Osasuna 26
Our call before kickoff
74%
Alavés or draw
Landed
2.6
Goals expected
Full time
Final 5–2
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
71%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
52%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
49%

How it finished

Alavés beat Osasuna 5–2. Bawler's model had Alavés in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 7. Alavés had 12 shots (7 on target) to Osasuna's 7 (5), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.8, so Osasuna created the better chances and still lost the game.

AlavésFull-time statsOsasuna
50%Possession50%
1.4Expected goals (xG)1.8
12Shots7
7Shots on target5
7Shots inside box6
3Big chances2
4Corners1
3Saves2
14Fouls13
2Offsides2
1Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAlavés or draw 74%Alavés won (46% called)
Total goals2.67
Both teams to score52%Yes
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 74%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

AlavésOsasuna
1.5
Goals+0.4
1.1
13.4
Shots+3.9
9.6
4.7
On target+1.5
3.2
6.0
Corners+2.4
3.7
AlavésOsasuna
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
6.1
Shots+2.0
4.2
2.1
On target+0.6
1.4
2.8
Corners+1.1
1.7
AlavésOsasuna
1.0
Goals+0.3
0.7
7.3
Shots+1.9
5.4
2.6
On target+0.9
1.8
3.2
Corners+1.3
2.0

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Alavés to score78%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Under 3.5 goals73%
Osasuna to score66%

First half — what we expected

Alavés
52%
to score before half-time
Osasuna
40%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%

AlavésOsasuna
6.11st-half shots4.2
2.11st-half shots on target1.4
2.81st-half corners1.7

First-half chances

67%Chance of 5+ shots39%
41%Chance of 7+ shots17%
84%Chance of 1+ shots on target72%
34%Chance of 3+ shots on target19%
72%Chance of 2+ corners48%
32%Chance of 4+ corners13%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Alavés6.17.3
Shots · Osasuna4.25.4
Shots on target · Alavés2.12.6
Shots on target · Osasuna1.41.8
Corners · Alavés2.83.2
Corners · Osasuna1.72.0
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.4 / match
Osasuna in their league tableBottom quarter
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Alavés vs Osasuna?

Alavés beat Osasuna 5–2. Bawler's model had Alavés in front at 46% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 7. Alavés had 12 shots (7 on target) to Osasuna's 7 (5), with 50% of the ball against 50%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.8, so Osasuna created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Alavés vs Osasuna?

Alavés 5–2 Osasuna, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Alavés 46%, the draw 27% and Osasuna 26%.

What were the stats in Alavés vs Osasuna?

Full-time: Possession 50%–50%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.8, Shots 12–7, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 7–6, Big chances 3–2, Corners 4–1, Saves 3–2, Fouls 14–13, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 1–2.

Did both teams score in Alavés vs Osasuna?

Yes — both Alavés and Osasuna scored, finishing 5–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Alavés vs Osasuna right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Alavés or draw 74%, it finished Alavés won (46% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 74%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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