FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 24 August 2026
Osasuna 0–0 LevanteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Osasuna at 49%, draw at 26%, Levante at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Osasuna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
49%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Levante win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.15
Total 2.83
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost